India could face one of its weakest monsoon seasons in three years as the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen during the upcoming rainy season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said El Niño is likely to emerge in June and gradually intensify through July and August before reaching full strength in September. The warning came just hours after the weather agency revised its monsoon outlook, predicting below-normal rainfall across the country.
El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is known for disrupting weather patterns across Asia and often weakens India’s southwest monsoon.
Historically, the phenomenon has been associated with reduced rainfall, prolonged heatwaves, and mounting pressure on agriculture and water resources.
According to the IMD, the developing El Niño could significantly influence rainfall distribution during the crucial monsoon months, raising concerns for farmers, policymakers, and water management authorities. Multiple global climate forecasting centres have also indicated the return of El Niño, increasing fears of a challenging monsoon season for India.
With agriculture heavily dependent on monsoon rains, experts are closely monitoring the evolving weather system as the country prepares for the possibility of below-average precipitation and its economic consequences.
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