A potential 60-day extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is reportedly awaiting final approval from President Donald Trump, according to Breakingviews analysis.
The proposal is seen as a critical step toward stabilizing one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. However, analysts caution that even if approved, restoring normal shipping flows may prove far more difficult in practice, as previous attempts to declare the route “safe” have not translated into sustained operational stability.
Market conditions remain fragile. With global oil reserves already significantly drawn down and security risks still elevated in the region, Iran is believed to retain substantial leverage in ongoing negotiations
The commentary warns that under these conditions, crude prices—currently around $92 per barrel—could quickly spike again if any disruption returns to the Strait of Hormuz.
The outlook underscores persistent uncertainty in global energy markets, where diplomatic progress has yet to fully translate into logistical and supply-chain certainty.
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